Weather is a situational aspect of crime.
Addressing the situational consequences of weather on crime is part of CPTED.
Changes in weather affect crime rates and crime risks - both locally and over wider areas.
For example, violent crime rates increase with temperature increases and burglary rates fall when the weather is bad (i.e. cold, raining, stormy, windy).
People change their routine behaviors depending on weather. Weather also has an effect on peoples emotions and tolerance - particularly heat. Weather affects people's rates of alcohol and drug consumption with subsequent changes in crime. In some locations, weather affects people's wages and economic needs and that drives crime also.
Weather 'shocks' (different weather than normal for the season) result in changes to crime rates - both immediately and following the weather shocks.
Crime is typically displaced over time and/or place by weather shocks.
In other words, if burglary is too difficult today becasue of weather or other shocks (including 'hot spot' policing), then it can be displaced to another place or another time and add to the crime rates then or there.
Findings are similar across Australia, China, Korea, India, New Zealand, South Africa, US and UK.
There are also contradictions - e.g. homicide rates in some places are independent of temperature.
Understanding the effects of weather on crime enables the design of better CPTED outcomes.
Example: CPTED advice on ia 2nd repeat burglary at a cafe during a long ongoing summmer heatwave will likely be different from advice for if the offence was in the middle of a characteristically cool winter. (CPTED advice for summer would be to make protective changes immediately to avoid another repeat burglary. In contrast, in winter cooler weather, the risks of a 3rd repeat burglary would be lower and offer more time to make changes.)
In the longer term, crime rates for many crime types are predicted to rise proportionally each year as a result of global warming and climate change.
For global warming, it is better to invest now in reducing crime, to reduce proportional increases in crime in later years.
See our new article on LinkedIn on Weather, Global Warming, Crime and CPTED.